The targeting of Iranian airports, ports and hotels in response to the US strikes has forced the Gulf states into the front lines of a war they don’t want to be a part of.

Washington’s allies in the Persian Gulf find themselves in a position they have long sought to avoid: on the front lines and suffer injury of a The conflict in the Middle East is expanding.

Dragged into a war of choice by the US – a which Many around the world calling A war of aggression – All six Gulf Cooperation Council countries have been affected by Iran’s retaliatory strikes.

Military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates All have been struck. But Iranian missiles and drones have targeted civilian infrastructure, including airports, ports and hotels, in the early days of the campaign against the US and Israel. Iran.

In scale and scope, the barrage marks a major departure from Iran’s previous response to attacks by US and Israeli airstrikes. On the contrary, time A 12 day war in June 2025Tehran only attacked one base in Qatar and even then Doha has alerted the authorities.

Instead, what’s happening in the region is a scenario that planners in Persian Gulf capitals are planning A long warning about: A deliberate attempt by Tehran to widen the conflict and hurt countries it sees as allies with the West.

as a Specialist in Gulf dynamicsI see unfolding events undoing years of work De-risk the area And jeopardizing unique selling points and business models based on the global rise of the Gulf states.

A cornered regime is fighting for survival

since when October 7, 2023, attack With Hamas and other Palestinian militants over Israel, policymakers in the Gulf countries have sought to avoid regionalizing the conflict.

Qatar led the way Mediating between Israel and Hamaswhen Oman did the same with the United States and Iran. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has maintained Regular dialogue with Iran To reduce regional tension.

Each successive escalation between Israel and Iran — in April and October 2024, and then in June 2025, with joint US-Israeli strikes — brought the region closer, rather than moving toward all-out war.

but Iran’s move on opening day What Washington has dubbed “Operation Epic Fury” has signaled that the comparative restraint it showed during the 12-day war is firmly off the table.

The Islamic Republic is now a cornered regime, fighting for its survival. As such, it seeks to spread the pain to regional neighbors. The rationale for this approach is that the Gulf states can exert pressure on the United States, which may fear the cascading costs of a prolonged regional conflict.

The Gulf countries are also obvious targets of Iran. As Iran lacks the capability to strike the US mainland with conventional weapons, American military bases in the Gulf region Within reach of Tehran’s ballistic arsenal.

Psychological impact on Gulf countries

The scale of Iranian attacks on Gulf targets in the first two days of the current conflict illustrates how different Iran’s response is now compared to June 2025: In the first two days of the conflict, Iran fired at least 390 ballistic missiles and 830 drones in the Gulf states. Compared to Iranians strike Last year, 14 ballistic missiles were fired at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and it was a single attack on a single target.

The air defense systems of the Gulf countries have neutralized most of the incoming Iranian missiles to date and caused real damage and casualties. limited Dozens of deaths and injuries.

But it is the intangible and emotional impact of attacks on Gulf cities that threaten to damage the reputation and image of cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. In recent years, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries have represented the Gulf as one An oasis of stability and shelter to live and work.

This is especially the case in Dubai, which has Marketing yourself strongly As a center of business and tourism. But this also applies to other Gulf countries, such as Qatar, which depends heavily on a steady current Large scale meetings and events.

of Iran Attacks on civilian infrastructure And soft targets – airports in Bahrain, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait, and hotels in Bahrain and Dubai – puncture this image of safe and secure Gulf capitals.

This choice of targets by Iran likely reflects a calculation that the leaders of the Gulf states will immediately feel the full impact of the war and will press Washington hard to find a solution and quickly.

Tehran’s subsequent targeting of oil and gas facilities, including Qatar’s Ras Lafan and Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, served as a further and highly consequential move. This has already triggered a strong response from Qatar, which Two Iranian planes were shot down March 2.

There is concern among the Gulf countries that The next rung on the ladder Targeting desalination plants vital to overcome water shortages in the region could increase.

Prone to growth

As important hubs of the global economy, the Gulf states are uniquely vulnerable to further Iranian growth due to their oil and gas reserves and their centrality to international shipping and aviation.

Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha Invested a lot To create airlines that act as “super-connectors” capable of connecting any two destinations worldwide with a stopover in the Gulf. A drone strike on February 28 at Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest for international travel, Effects illustrated Iran’s asymmetric response may lie in the global hub model that has come to dominate world air travel.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of passengers have been stranded and made stranded by airspace closures in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as well as Bahrain and Kuwait. The biggest disruption In global travel since the COVID-19 pandemic.

In addition, cargo operations essential to local supply chains have been greatly affected, while seaborne trade has also been affected The Strait of Hormuz is similarly obstructed.

Whereas the initial rise in oil prices and insurance premiums at the start of the 12-day war last year fall away As it became clear that energy infrastructure was not significantly targeted, The opposite happened this time

Risk and uncertainty

But the short-term shock to the global economy is not the primary concern of GCC members. Since the Gulf crisis of 1990-91, with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War, the region Facing many dangers and uncertainty.

And this is the leaders of Iran. The attack across the Gulf of Tehran was, after all, not without strategy. D Purpose is expanded The conflict, thereby significantly increasing the costs of the United States and its partners in the Gulf.

Tehran hopes that economic leverage will encourage Gulf leaders to press Trump for an end game. But in attacking capitals across the region, Iran risks doing the opposite: severing any chance of improving relations with regional rivals and instead pushing them into Washington’s orbit after a while.

Christian Coates UlriksenMiddle East Fellow at the Baker Institute, Rice University

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