The government was shaken by the protests Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal And Sri Lanka – to name a few – all in recent years are what demographers call “The youth bulgeMeanwhile, the Economic slowdown in China And Ballooning public debt In the United States The aging of the two forces is partly due to demographics. In contrast, recent economic growth in Brazil, India and Vietnam reflects “Demographic DividendEconomically active.
Demographic trends are fueling some of the phenomena Rebuilding the world. But what exactly are these age-related phenomena and why are they having such an impact now? I explore these topics in depth in my book 2024 “Demography and the Making of the Modern World“
Below is a rundown of some of the major demographic dynamics that are changing the world.
Young people
Having a high proportion of the population aged 14 and under is a factor Usually found in poor countriesAnd that usually means economic performance pulls a huge population.
We see this Angola, Niger and SomaliaAll of which are between 45% and 50% of that age — compared About 17% in the US.
Having such a large proportion of society in their infancy means that fewer workers are supporting a large number of citizens who are not in the workforce – and this leads to lower savings rates and economic growth.
Countries are still in this early stage Demographic transition High to low birth rates often have limited economic opportunities.
The swelling of youth
Baby booms, the result of high fertility rates, are inevitably a “The youth bulge” It is defined as a country with a larger than average proportion of people aged 15 to 29.
This blossoming political instability is associated with growth and potential Political violence has increased.
Studies have shown that more than 60% of the countries population is under 30 years of age Four times more likely To experience the outbreak of civil strife.
So it’s not surprising that countries that have experienced massive political protests of late are one Significant youth inflation. In Bangladeshwhich his government saw In 2024 the collapse was followed by mass protests53% of the population is under 30 years of age. IranWhere large protests were brutally suppressed in January, between 50% and 60% were under the age of 30. Sri Lankaits site Big protest in 202248% of the population is under 30 years of age.
This is not an entirely new phenomenon. D arab spring The coups of 2011-12 owe much of their origin to the rise of youth in the Middle East. At the time, Egypt had a population under the age of 30, one of the hotbeds of the uprising 60%-65%.
When economies cannot generate enough employment for a large youth community, unemployment among educated youth can lead to widespread frustration and a sense of political marginalization, which can sometimes turn into violent methods to effect change.
In societies with high numbers of young people, under-15s or youth inflation, there may be other serious global knock-on effects. For example, while there are many reasons behind new immigration flows, an underlying driver of the exodus – particularly from Africa and the Middle East – is a lack of opportunity at home and the promise of better opportunities abroad for this growing population.
Demographic Dividend
As for the age of youth countries, a phenomenon called “Demographic Dividendcan happen That’s when there is a higher proportion of economically active 15-64 year olds.
From 1970 to 2000 there was rapid economic growth East Asian economies, Western Europe And US This was tied to the demographic dividend.
Today, with the country Demographic Dividend such as VietnamWith 70% of the population aged 15-64, there is scope for impressive growth rates.
And while sub-Saharan Africa has many problems now, partly as a result of a large population under the age of 15, it may be looking at a huge potential. Future demographic dividend.
Aging population
The window of opportunity created by the demographic dividend does not last forever. As life expectancy increases, so does the population age.
China has now aged out of its dividend, and Brazil’s is about to. In China, the population Over 65 will reach 28% by 2040 – more than double what it was just 15 years ago.
In Very old country, such as Japan and ItalyThe 65 and over population now accounts for 25%-30% of the total population.
And that can be a huge problem.
A gray population can reduce economic growth. In the United States, people over 65 are the fastest-growing cohort, and tend to be high-propensity voters who push the government to increase retirement benefits, leading to Massive flow of wealth transfers From a shrinking working population to a growing number of retirees. In 1950, there were 16.5 workers for every one Social Security Beneficiary By 2023 in the United States, this number had declined 2.7 workers per beneficiary.
A The second demographic dividend Can happen if an aging population has enough savings and wealth to pass on to younger generations. But this wealth transfer can increase inequality, as those who receive substantial inheritances will be better off than those who do not.
In most gray societies, there is often intense debate over how governments should pay for the benefits of a growing older population from the wages of a declining working-age population.
Solutions such as raising the retirement age, reducing benefits or imposing higher taxes come with political costs. In France, for example, President Emmanuel Macron’s government has faced periodic threats popular protest Against cutting social welfare, especially retirement benefits.
At the end of the transition, older rich countries now need foreign workers – but are coming up against it The nativist response. The combination of a sluggish economy and new flows of immigrants is creating a volatile politics conducive to the rise of authoritarianism and xenophobia. Thus, the rise of a populist nationalism in the United States and across Europe is associated with a A growing aging population.
shrinking world
As the birth rate declines A nation’s population shrinks Often of concern to political elites, who tend to view a large population as one source of energy.
This explains the government encouragement of high birth rates through China and Russia Maternity policy Such as tax breaks and revenue incentives. even US administration How to increase the birth rate is considered.
But the government has less power to provide incentives Women having more children.
Population size can influence geopolitical rivalry. India is in the fortunate position of a demographic dividend that may continue for decades to come. India’s population by 2100 will be approximately 1.5 billion; China is predicted to have 800 million. And it could change the dynamic between the two long-time rivals.
Meanwhile, Russia’s population continues to decline due to a very low birth rate. this Population crisis feed into a The post-imperial syndromeWhereas the decline of empire and power status evokes a sense of loss of self-importance that breeds discontent and an unwavering commitment to maintaining great power status.
How governments and societies adapt to demographic changes is critical: demographic dividends can be wasted and aging populations can enrich societies, if played right. Population is undoubtedly an important force in contemporary events – but it is also Not a preordained fate.
John Rennie ShortEmeritus Professor of Public Policy, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
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