If you want to understand the geopolitics of the last two centuries, write the history of coal, oil and gas.
If you want to understand the geopolitics of the last two centuries, write the history of coal, oil and gas. Whoever controlled fossil fuels controlled routes, set prices, built alliances, won wars, fought inflation and dominated foreign policy. Europe believed for years that it had found a reasonable solution: buy cheap gas from Russia through pipelines that would guarantee a stable supply for its industry. The theory was that economic interdependence would make conflict impossible. Until Russia invaded Ukraine and turned that dependence into a weapon.
The European response was swift but not necessarily smart: it replaced Russian pipelines with American LNG tankers. According to the Council of the European Union, The US is already the main supplier of LNG to Europe. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Dr It could account for 80% of European imports of liquefied natural gas by 2030. In summary, We only traded dependenciesMoving from reliance on Putin’s deception to reliance on Trump’s stupidity (or the other way around, who cares!) is a diplomatic achievement of the first order. Previously, the problem came from Siberia by pipeline, now it crosses the Atlantic by ship and is much more expensive. And the fact that the Nord Stream was blown up for the obvious benefit of certain actors is still a detail that should be remembered, although the available evidence does not allow anyone to point the finger.
This does not automatically mean that the US wants the war in Ukraine to never end in order to continue selling gas. The geopolitical reality is much more complex. It is clear that US energy companies are reaping huge benefits from Europe’s new energy map, as it is clear The destruction of Nord Stream eliminated key infrastructure supporting energy interdependence between Europe and Russia. But it is one thing to recognize economic and strategic incentives, and quite another to turn them into conclusive evidence of a conspiracy.
Who sells our gas is not the important question. The important question is why we still need it so much. Because as long as Europe is structurally dependent on fossil fuel imports, there will always be someone on the other side with the power to exert political, economic or strategic pressure. Russia, the United States, Qatar or Algeria: supplier changes, but not weakness.
That’s why energy transition is not just a climate issue. It is a question of sovereignty. Chatham House sums it up very well: Renewables and electrification are the real foundations of European energy security. A solar panel on a Spanish roof cannot be used as a geopolitical weapon in the same way as a gas pipeline. A heat pump reduces imports. A smart grid reduces exposure to international markets. An electricity system based on renewables, storage and flexibility shifts power from energy producers to technology and engineering.
And here it is worth debunking another myth: nuclear power does not solve this problem either. In fact, it prolongs it. Current nuclear power is extraordinarily expensive compared to solar and wind. Lazard’s latest report shows that again Renewables are the cheapest form of new electricity generation. While solar and wind continue to reduce costs due to learning curves and economies of scale, Western nuclear plans are plagued by delays, cost overruns and projects that are virtually impossible to finance without massive public subsidies. Flamanville And Hinckley Point c show that Each new nuclear power plant is a monument to bureaucratic and financial problems rather than a solution to tomorrow’s energy needs.. West has been Failed to build reactors on time or on budget for decades.
Additionally, nuclear does not fit well into a system dominated by renewables. Modern power grids require flexibility, storage and adaptability: distributed and variable generation. Nuclear power plants, designed to operate continuously as rigid-based sources, discourage this flexibility. Nor do they offer true strategic independence: Europe imports virtually all the uranium it consumes. According to Euratom, Much of Europe’s nuclear fuel depends on imports and supply chains dominated by Russia. Changing dependence on gas for dependence on uranium doesn’t exactly sound like a geopolitical revolution or a smart decision.
The good news for Europe is that, for many years, there has been a real alternative. Energy transition is not just about replacing fossil plants with other technologies; It consists of completely changing the architecture of the energy system. Moving from a model based on importing and burning fuel to a model based on renewable electricity, storage, digitalization, smart grids and efficiency requires a much more technological transformation, like the Internet than thermal power plants.
And there lies Europe’s historic opportunity. Because it lacks oil or gas reserves but has industrial capacity, engineering, technology, regulation and talent. It can stop acting as a captive customer of the fossil empire and become a leader in a distributed and electrified energy system. It can substitute imports for local investment, instability for stability, and geopolitical dependence for technological autonomy.
The real question is no longer whether Europe should buy Russian or American gas. That’s the old, fossil, 20th century question. The important question is how long we want to keep depending on the fuel that someone has to ship or pipeline to us. Because as long as we keep burning stuff, we’ll keep relying on people who sell it.
The last century can only be understood by following the oil trail. The 21st will be understood by following the electron’s tail. Europe has to decide which one they want to be in.
(In Spanish, here)
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This post was Previously published on MEDIUM.COM.
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