By Robin Gilman, The Loop
France claims a ‘safe’ Europe is the goal of its new nuclear policy. nevertheless Robin Gilman Argues that undermining the Non-Proliferation Treaty is undermining the EU’s credibility and security, putting it at a crossroads. France can either remain a reliable partner – or collapse the rules-based order
2 March 2026, FrancePresident Emmanuel MacronThe country’s nuclear policy has been updated. He called it ‘forward deterrence’, meaning more warheads, less transparency and an open invitation to EU partners to join the French-led nuclear programme. Confirms Macron’s proposalFull sovereignty of Franceon its nuclear arsenal while seeking to adapt it to the European security context.
Macron’s policy is a response to a world where ‘The field of rules has been reduced to rubble‘ Rather than restoring order based on international rules, it is hastening its disintegration. France and its allies are no longer witness to the breaking of the rules. Now, they have become active deconstructors.
Challenging the NPT
France may claim to support the rules-based order, but Macron’s policy of forward deterrence challenges the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons ((NPT). By inviting European partners, France risks violating the ban on nuclear sharingArticles I and IIand conflicts with Article VI, which calls for nuclear disarmament. Furthermore, the NPT is a ‘Multilateral legally binding commitments‘ thoughFrance reiterates its commitment to denuclearizationThe move indicates a calculated willingness to ignore legal obligations in the interest of its national ‘security’.
Macron’s forward deterrence policy challenges the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and risks violating articles that demand denuclearization.
would violate this policy2010 RevCon Action Plan which remains the last political commitment to ensure NPT fulfillment. Specifically, 5 points of the plan, which remain diplomatic consensusSupported by the EUCalls for more disarmament and transparency. Ultimately, this argument lacks legal and moral credibility. The European Union cannot act as a global rule-setter while tolerating selective compliance with international norms by its own member states.
Europe is not safe
Mahmoud Javadipoints out that ‘Nuclear deterrence is a house of cards: one wrong move, one miscalculation and the illusion of stability collapses’. Today’s multipolar world order increases the risk of such a butterfly-effect. A policy change that seems strategically logical for France may have ramifications elsewhere. Ultimately, the policy can become the trigger that topples the house of cards.
Ignoring the NPT and the 2010 Action Plan risks creating a legal vacuum in which political commitments become voluntary. whenOlamide Samuel Arguing that ‘Europe is too late to the nuclear game’, the crisis is actually deeper. More than a strategic gap, it is a fundamental erosion of the EU’s identity as a trusted partner. Selectively ignoring international norms undermines Europe’s credibility. By treating a security agreement as negotiable, the EU leaves global partners wondering what its word is worth for other long-term commitments.
The erosion of Europe’s identity as an international rule-setter is a greater immediate threat to the EU than any nuclear bomb, because credibility is Europe’s currency. The value of this currency is built on the European Union’s ability to influence the world through regulation: an ideological force better known as the Brussels Effect.
The European Union’s ideological power will erode if the rest of the world does not see it as a reliable, trustworthy partner
The importance of the European market forces global partners to follow European regulations to maintain access. Examples like GDPR demonstrate that Europe’s strength lies in its international regulatory powers. However, this strength depends on the perception that the EU is a reliable, trustworthy partner. Without this understanding, the EU’s ideological power will erode and the world will no longer feel compelled to follow Europe’s lead. A credible Europe cannot argue for adherence to the agreement in Brussels while challenging the NPT in Paris. By abandoning continuity in diplomacy, France puts EU credibility on the line.
2026 RevCon
The 11th NPT RevCon – the Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons – in New York, 27 April–22 May 2026, is the latest attempt to reach a meaningful consensus for NPT compliance. The EU is trying to act as oneBridge builder But finding it difficult to maintain the role.
Indeed, the EU has become onefragmented institutions. Member states are torn between efforts to disarm, not stepping on America’s toes, and strengthening European security. However, by mimicking the Trump administration’s disregard for international law, Macron’s policy of forward deterrence risks becoming a new source of global instability. And while the EU was not a negotiator but an observer at the 2026 RevCon, France’s unilateral action has a direct impact on Europe’s identity.
The EU cannot act as a bridge builder if it continues to tolerate member states’ non-compliance with the NPT
whenEU is for disarmamentFrance’s policy is fueling a hypocritical idea. The EU cannot act as a bridge builder if it continues to tolerate member states’ non-compliance with the NPT. Adversaries and NPT skeptics can weaponize this fragmentation. France’s selective approach to international norms gives the opposition an excuse to bypass international norms. In the past, states have given contracts like the 2021 AUKUSIranJustifying their nuclear ambitions. Its own intransigence towards member states compromises Europe’s ability to name and shame. Ultimately, the EU’s ideological authority is waning in the debate over international security and disarmament risks, making Europe less secure.
The EU is failing to practice what it preaches
In a changing global order, self-proclaimed moral arbiters are breaking the rules once again. RevCon will determine whether a divided Europe can be reassured, or lose its credible identity, as member states challenge the NPT. The return to Cold War-era logic has had a deeper impact on France than expected. Ultimately, if France and its partners continue to break the rules promoted by the EU, EU credibility will be a thing of the past.
☢️ No.36 in a series of nuclear politics paradoxes
this ArticleOriginally published loopand republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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