Due to international pressure, some political prisoners in Belarus have been released. However, these cases may reflect not the weakness of the country’s repressive regime, but rather its transformation. Aleah Baradzin Argues that this ‘release’ is, in fact, a process of forced expulsion from Belarus
Alexander LukashenkoEurope’s ‘Last Dictator’, has been the first and only President of Belarus Since the establishment of the office in 1994. In the lead-up to the country’s 2020 presidential election, there were widespread allegations of vote rigging. When Lukashenko emerged victorious, mass protests broke out across the country.
Authorities responded with systematic violence, mass arrests, torture, and criminal prosecutions. The government convicted thousands as political prisoners and threw them into prisons. Among the detainees are many foreign nationals, including US citizens. Reported by United Nations Human Rights Council And OHCHR Documented repression, torture, and other systematic human rights violations.
In the wake of the fraudulent 2020 elections, Lukashenko’s regime became critically dependent on the Kremlin. And since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus has increasingly become a Russian military platform.
Last year, under international pressure, Belarus began releasing its political prisoners. But the government simply did not give these prisoners their freedom. Instead, it is moving many of them, under state control, to the Belarusian border and expelling them from the country.
While Lukashenko’s regime has begun releasing its political prisoners, many have actually been transferred to the Belarusian border and expelled from the country.
But ending the imprisonment of these prisoners does not mean that the government has legally ‘liberated’ them. Lukashenko’s regime did not reverse the repressive policies that forced the core beliefs. Although they may be expelled, the sentence imposed on these prisoners will remain in force.
Four waves of expulsion
Since last summer, human rights defenders have documented four waves of expulsions from Belarus. D first waveAs of 21 June 2025, 14 people have been affected. the secondOn 11 September 2025, 52 people were infected, including 14 foreign nationals. In response, the US announced a partial relaxation of sanctions. the thirdAs of 13 December 2025, 123 people have been affected. Of these, nine were sent to safe haven Lithuania and 114 to war zone Ukraine. Those sent to Lithuania included the best-known representatives of the Belarusian opposition, whose release quickly became an international media event.
After new talks between Lukashenko and US Special Representative John Quayle, The fourth wave Of the releases on 19 March 2026, around 250 have been affected. These 15 ruled forcibly expelled while they were still under criminal sentence.
At this point, it became clear that the regime was using two different models. It expelled the most prominent political dissidents. The rest were pardoned, given the right to stay in Belarus and had their sentences overturned.
In the fourth wave of revelations, the regime was clearly using two different models: expelling only the most prominent dissidents and pardoning others.
Media outlets and human rights organizations commonly describe former cases as ‘releases’, ‘deportations’, ‘deportations’ or ‘forced removals’, but the ‘released’ individuals remain convicted criminals. The extraction and deportation of political prisoners are often treated as separate actions rather than a unified process of forced expulsion.
Despite the differences in scale, the structure of all fields remains almost identical: a reproducible state system.
The Troubled Case of Mikola Statkevich
Following the US-brokered deal, prominent anti-Belarusian figures Mikola StatkevichImprisoned since 2020, was released from jail on 11 September 2025. The regime tried to expel him to Lithuania, but Statkevich refused to leave his homeland and was returned to the Belarusian penal colony.
Back at the prison, evidence showed that the governing body had replaced Statkevich’s required blood-thinning medication with aspirin. As a result, he suffered a severe stroke in January 2026. The following month, authorities handed him over to his wife for treatment at home.
Despite his release, Statkevich’s legal status remains unclear.
Mukti: A phase of mere expulsion
I am using the term ‘forced expulsion by release’, as used earlier This article. The term describes a state system in which a person’s removal from detention constitutes a stage of expulsion from the country, even though the government does not formalize the expulsion through legal process.
We cannot consider such a process ‘liberation’, because the criminal status of the person remains. Nor can we consider it official deportation, since deportation is not formalized as an independent legal decision.
We cannot even consider it a voluntary departure, because if the person refuses to leave the country, the state will likely return them to prison.
Left high and dry
The consequences of forced expulsion extend beyond removing a person from the country. Ex-prisoners find themselves abroad with uncertain legal status. They often lack documents confirming their identity, education, qualifications and employment history. This, of course, complicates legalization, employment and integration in receiving countries.
Deported ex-prisoners often lack documents to confirm their identity and eligibility. This complicates legalization, employment and integration in receiving countries
For receiving states, such cases create an additional administrative burden. Authorities must identify people, verify their data and provide basic right-to-remain status outside of standard migration mechanisms and asylum procedures.
Expulsion of political prisoners also affects public perception of what is happening. People can see such cases as the release of genuine prisoners. This creates the false impression that, despite continued repression, Lukashenko’s regime is softening under international pressure, particularly from Washington.
Consequently, the Consequences of government repressive measures They continue to influence people even after they leave the country.
Not necessarily true freedom
This ‘release’, then, is not a humanitarian gesture by a softening regime. Rather, they allow Lukashenko’s government to ease external pressure and appear ready to make concessions. By doing so, it preserves the repressive system.
In Belarus, political prisoners have become not only objects of persecution, but also a managed political resource. The government can detain them, release them, expel them, or use them in negotiations without stopping the broader Belarusian flow of criminal justice.
This is why proper qualification is important in such cases – and not just to describe individual episodes. This allows us to see that ’emancipation’ is not the end of repression, but only its adaptation to external political pressures.
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