Marius Bales And Max Mutchler Argue that precision weapons do not protect civilians. Indeed, in authoritarian regimes, they may even target civilian suffering. In the case of democracies like Israel and the United States, weak checks on executive power can also loosen military restraint.
It’s before dawn in Mykolayiv, Ukraine. A caliber cruise missile arcs across the Black Sea, Hitting a power substation That feeds the city. Within seconds the surrounding area went dark. The strike is specific. It obliterated the substation, but the surrounding apartment blocks remain standing. And yet, those apartments are still the target. No heat, no light, no water— purpose Do not destroy a military targetbut To violate the will of civilians inside
Military analyst for several decades Considers precision weapons as human progress. Fewer target misses mean fewer civilian deaths. Our research shows that this assumption is wrong. Accuracy does not create moderation. By political system.
Accuracy is political
Authoritarian regimes use precision as a political weapon. Russia’s Attack on Ukraine’s Power Grid A clear example. In Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s weapons and drone strikes Targets are not just military locations, but infrastructure critical to civilian survival. Asad And Petni It did the same in Syria. This case is different. But the pattern is the same. Authoritarian regimes do not use subtlety to protect civilians but to apply social pressure.
Because not just military technology. In democracies, the politics of civil protection even takes the form of unpopular wars. Public opinion is important. Open media means civilian casualties are reported, often accompanied by images that alter public mood, undermine support for war, and even damage electoral prospects.
Authoritarian regimes do not use subtlety to protect civilians but to apply social pressure
dictator No such obstacles are encountered. Like democratic leaders, they need not fear free elections, independent courts or an open media. State media can hide or justify civilian casualties. The government can silence the opposition and ignore the courts.
That changes the targeting logic. Liberal democracies often embed precision weapons in rules of engagement, legal review, and civilian-casualty mitigation. In autocracy, the same technology becomes a tool of delivery Coercive punishment with precision
Case in point: Yemen
Between 2015 and 2022, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) conducted more than 25,000 airstrikes in Yemen. According to Yemen Data ProjectMore than one-third hit civilian sites (39% of target could not be identified). Sites include farms, markets, warehouses, fishing boats, hospitals and water infrastructure – but, as ACLED data Expresses, only in Houthi-controlled western Yemen:
These were Not an accident but strategy: Destroy Houthi bases Makes life unlivable Areas they control. Destruction of wells and water treatment plants to create scarcity. injury the farm And fish to reduce the food supply. bomb bridge And road To isolate communities. school strike And hospital Disruption of education and healthcare. destroy Economic structure. The aim was not only to punish, but also to force displacement, weaken the insurgents’ recruitment and resilience.
For most of these targets, Saudi and Emirati forces would consider carpet bombing with unguided bombs a waste of military resources. Precision weapons, however, made such bombardment cost-effective.
International pressure was the main brake. There was no domestic resentment. after Assassination of Jamal KhashoggiGlobal scrutiny of Saudi and Emirati behavior in Yemen has increased. Civilian targeting declined for some time. When UN monitoring weakens, It rose again.
Syria offers a revealing contrast. In the US-led coalition against the Islamic State, Saudi and Emirates aircraft Operated under American intelligence, targeting rules and operational controls. Their attacks focused more narrowly on military targets. The lesson is important. Democratic coalition leadership can moderate authoritarian partners—but only when those partners depend on it.
Democracy can also collapse
Democracy is Sobriety is not guaranteed. Israel’s war in Gaza shows that even democracies can use precision weapons in ways that cause Massive civilian casualties. This does not negate our argument. It sharpens.
Israel remains a formally democratic state, with elections, courts and a vocal public sphere. Yet under Benjamin Netanyahu, Like in the US under TrumpLiberal checks and judicial oversight on executive power have come under constant pressure. There is V-dem Degraded Israel From Liberalism to Electoral Democracy.
The impact on war is not simple. of Hamas Dense urban land use That’s what matters The trauma of 7 October 2023. But democratic decay may help explain why civilian casualties have become less of a political constraint—as such Currently litigated in the United States.
Israeli attacks on Hamas operatives’ homes and energy targets blur the line between defeating the enemy and destroying its environment.
Israel described its Gaza operation as targeting Hamas leaders, fighters, tunnels, weapons depots and command structures. Yet the class of military values has expanded. The home invasion of the operatives and the so-called Power is the goal – High-rise and public buildings – incl AI-assisted target generationAnd High collateral-loss thresholdDefeat an enemy and blur the line between destroys its environment. D Decay of democratic norms there is Deep tolerance For the staggering death toll.
This is not the authoritarian playbook in pure form. Israel is not Russia, and operations still use legal language and civilian mitigation measures. But they can point to a freer variation of war: still valid in rhetoric, still technically correct, but Willing to relax civil-defense rules. The claim is that civilian protection depends on institutions that hold governments accountable for civilian suffering. As these institutions weaken, precision weapons serve a different purpose.
Why does this matter?
The policy lesson is clear. Arms transfers to dictators with poor civilian-casualty records are highly problematic. Advanced weapons do not make partners more restrained. They can make coercion more accurate.
Where democratic states seek cooperation, they need real operational influence. This means shared goal setting rules, embedded legal advice and control over intelligence. Otherwise, the leverage that controls the partners disappears.
Advanced weapons do not make partners more restrained. They can make coercion more accurate
A similar caveat applies at home. If democracies weaken legal oversight of courts, parliaments, the media, and the military, they weaken the institutions that make civilians politically expendable. Precision weapons will still hit most of their targets. They will often ask less about who else is standing nearby.
Technology has no conscience. Difference between protection and oppression Lies have never been a more precise weaponBut those who command them are in their principles.
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this Article Originally published loop and republished here under a Creative Commons license.
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